Wednesday, April 15, 2020

NO SUGARCOATING THE STATE OF NYC ECONOMY BUT WHERE'S OUR BAILOUT?

The city economy is in freefall.

This is from the Independent Budget Office's latest report released today:

The Covid-19 pandemic and the public health restrictions imposed to help limit the spread of infections have delivered a severe blow to the economy, leading to very large and abrupt job losses that are unprecedented in their scope and pace. Given the staggering job losses, IBO assumes that the U.S. economy has entered a recession, even if not yet captured in the official statistics. As the economy contracts, tax revenues will follow suit, particularly economically sensitive revenue sources such as income and sales taxes.

IBO estimates a $9.7 billion drop in NYC tax revenue and a loss of 475,000 jobs. Plugging this multi-billion dollar budget hole is going to be a real challenge.

For the schools, Chalkbeat NY gives us this information today:

About 80 city schools out of roughly 1,600 receive more than 100% under the formula, according to the most recent city data. It was not immediately clear to what extent other schools would also be asked to make cuts. It is also unclear if the mayor would keep his promise to ensure schools receive at least 90% of what they’re owed. City Hall officials did not immediately answer those questions.

The $100 million cut to fair student funding represents a roughly 1.6% reduction to that funding source. Fair student funding represents the majority of most school budgets.

Some are probably thinking that the federal government needs to bail out NYC as the current economic issues are no fault of the people.

The private sector is getting a generous bailout. For example, the airlines.

From the NY Times:

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has reached an agreement in principle with major airlines over the terms of a $25 billion bailout to prop up an industry hobbled by the coronavirus pandemic.

The Treasury Department said that Alaska Airlines, Allegiant Air, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways, United Airlines, SkyWest Airlines and Southwest Airlines would participate. The program is supposed to help the companies pay their workers and was created as part of the economic stabilization package that Congress passed last month.

I've said before that teachers and others in the New York area should not be bashful now and should be demanding the federal government make our schools and our entire city whole.

19 comments:

  1. Money for what exactly?

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  2. So if I never had the virus, I should go to work in may, immediately get deathly I'll, then take 3 weeks off from work to be in quarantine?

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  3. Money for schools to he spent on what? We didnt have a funding problem year after year, schools have been disgraceful in nyc.

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  4. Place the ATR's and freeze hiring until they are placed. Budget issue fixed. But no, let's waste that money on another failed initiative.

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  5. I would be there won't be anymore ATRS in the fall. The system will not be able to afford them. I can actually see people being placed based on seniority again if there are thousands of layoffs. It is the only rational system, otherwise there is chaos where senior teachers in schools with lots of senior teachers get laid off while new teachers in other schools do not. But let's say they don't it by seniority -- people will go insane.

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  6. If they don't do it by seniority, what will be the criteria. It's always been seniority even when they threatened 10 years ago to lay off teachers, it was still the last ones in that would have gone first. If they can still afford the ATR and will continue hiring teachers, but cut all those programs, this is the most corrupt organization in the world. The principals will just have to suck it up and accept the teachers into their school like they did years ago. Also, if they try to take away the retro pay, that's a lawsuit because that is money we earned.

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  7. It is a state of emergency. Laws can be suspended if it will help with the emergency. A bill was passed in 2010 by the State Senate to make city teacher layoffs go by factors other than seniority but Sheldon Silver killed it in the Assembly.

    Today,there really is no money at the state and city level so be careful about saying anything is impossible. The city would save money if they could lay off based on "job performance".

    That said, it is hard to imagine how teacher layoffs would be done based on "job performance" as it could have implications way beyond the UFT. Strong unions like the PBA would more than likely oppose the precedent as would AFL-CIO.

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  8. Good thing the idiots/dimwits/simpletons who run this city didn't push back against AOC
    and her socialist/communist mob and allow Amazon in LIC. Who wants Amazon providing jobs and a solid tax base for NYC to allow them to pay civil servants.
    The dope from Park Slope (DiBlasio) should be thrown in jail.

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  9. De Blasio was for the Amazon deal and I believe was in on negotiations. How much did Amazon pay in federal taxes last year? I think it was $0. Jeff Bezos didn't need more tax breaks.

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  10. Hi, I heard what happened in 1975 was the city sent some teachers home without salaries but latter on many were called back the following year.
    This time, would similar thing happen? I don't mind staying at home for a year and coming back the following year.

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  11. People were called back in 70's. That is accurate. Unknown what will happen now obviously.

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  12. Cuomo says NY stays on pause through at least May 15th.

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  13. Another 30 day extension of the lockdown (AKA pause) essentially guarantees economic disaster for NYC and NYS well beyond this fiscal year.

    This is not the direction we should be going if we want to start pulling out of this. I am surprised he went 30 days - saying 15 would have signaled a bit of hope to employers and the markets.

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  14. Mayor said laying off people would be his last resort, in contingency to Federal Aid.
    Let's not forget, he erroneously claimed closing schools to be his last resort. "Last resort"
    out of his mouth is scaring.

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  15. City Education Cuts

    Fair student funding reduction prioritizing schools that already have over 100% (DOE) - $100M in FY21
    Operational savings in training, overtime, and materials at schools, central and field due to school building closures (DOE) - $100M in FY20
    Professional Development reduction (DOE) - $67M in FY21 and outyears
    Cuts to Summer in the City, Single Shepherd, College Access for All (DOE) - $49M in FY21 and outyears
    Delay in 3K Expansion to districts in 1, 12, 14, and 29 (DOE) - $43M in FY21
    Reducing the ATR pool by implementing a non-ATR hiring freeze (DOE) - $40M in FY21 and outyears
    Temporary reduction of School Allocation Memoranda, which provides schools with funding to implement programming (DOE) - $40M in FY21
    Temporary delay of new cohort of freshmen for CUNY ASAP program (CUNY) - $20M in FY21
    Contract and supply reductions associated with arts programming in middle and high schools (DOE) - $15.5M in FY21 and outyears
    Savings from delayed installation of air conditioners (DOE) - $10M in FY21
    Monthly MetroCard underutilization for remaining 2 months of academic year (CUNY) - $6.8M in FY20
    Eliminate District/Charter Partnerships program - $4.4M in FY21 and outyears
    Eliminate supplies and materials used in Civics for All curriculum and programming (DOE) - $3.8M in FY21 and outyears
    Adjustments to SONYC Afterschool budget (DOE) - $5M in FY21 and outyears
    Savings achieved from anticipated low summer enrollment in CUNY Start Math program (CUNY) - $800K in FY20 and $1.6M in FY21
    Scaling down contracts, technology curriculum and health education certification programming for teachers (DOE) - $1.8M in FY21 and outyears

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  16. No summer school this year either. That can really hurt someone who was depending on it now or for a FAS calculation.

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  17. Yeah, sure. How many principals will say that the ATRs didnt fit the need or wsnt a good fit so they need to hire a new teacher?

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  18. I am eager to see the cuts to Central: The Chancellor's office, the Deputy Chancellors' offices, The COO offices, the Executive Superintendents offices, the Superintendents offices, and the Executive directors for this and that offices. These are a lot of people with fancy titles but contribute very little in a positive productive way to what goes on in the schools.

    Cut all the "Fill in the blank for All" programs.

    Cut most professional development; especially anything by consultants.

    Dump the Quality Review good for nothing money pit.

    All these cuts would save millions and improve the schools at the same time.

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