One of my most important sources for COVID-19 information is Dr. Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist who is the Director of The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. I never miss his weekly podcast and eat up every word when he is on a news show although I don't always agree when he voices an opinion.
Back in March of 2020, Osterholm predicted there could be 480,000 fatalities from COVID-19 in the U.S. on the Joe Rogan podcast. Osterholm said it was 10-15 times worse than the seasonal flu.
Osterholm admitted his biggest error when Alpha variant (b-117) didn't explode in the United States in the spring of 2021 outside of Minnesota and Michigan. In addition, he cautions repeatedly about needing humility in the face of this virus as our knowledge evolves so the science is corrected when we get more data. His podcast is on weekly. As I stated before, I never miss it although I get COVID-19 news from plenty of other sources too.
He talks about the schools around the 1-hour and 3-minute mark of this week's edition. These are my notes on his remarks about the schools.
He is asked by host Chris Dall about the schools. Osterholm responds that the schools are going to be a severe challenge and in a sense we have this real experiment going on and our kids are being experimented on and he has a real problem with that. Osterholm has five grandchildren himself.
He talks about the need for in-person education. He then says there are two camps: one saying we need in-person learning for kid's development, parents needing to work and economic issues with parents not being able to stay home. The other camp saying not on my watch, my kids are at risk; I don't want this to happen to my kids. In-class education people won.
They made recommendations to the CDC that are not based on science. They are from the first nine months of the pandemic, before we had Alpha and Delta. They concluded kids could be three feet apart and could put a hanky on their face and be fine. We know that is not true. Kids can transmit this virus and get infected readily. It is at a lower percentage for kids experiencing severe illness but we have challenges with pediatric cases and pediatric hospitalizations with kids in serious condition are at an all-time high now. Early weeks of school in Southern states have so many kids quarantined.
To think that we can stop a virus like this now being three feet from someone is beyond pixie-dust wishful thinking. He wants his grandkids in school but we have to acknowledge the risk. Many schools have not done improved ventilation. Many teachers are vaccinated but many parents are not. Once COVID is in the school it is like lighting a match in a small piece of wood that becomes a forest fire. Sending kids to school is an invitation to spread the virus. You can't put kids in a room where they are 3 feet apart. We need effective masking (N95, KN95s that fit kids).
CDC saying kids can be 3 feet apart reeks of anti-science. Osterholm supports CDC but CDC is just plain wrong here. There has to be an objective view on this. We need to do much more in our schools before we can put kids in schools safely. We need better ventilation, testing, respiratory protection. This is really critical and we don't have it.
Osterholm then talks about how the pandemic will eventually end. Please listen to the podcast.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2021/08/19/bill-de-blasio-says-public-schools-will-not-be-remote/amp/
ReplyDeleteNO REMOTE OPTION ON DIBLASIOS WATCH...if covid explodes, he will be tarnished like cuomo.then blame unvaxxed teachers, of course.diblunderer listwns to the voices in his head.
Nothing new here. The DOE under mayoral control has sustained an epidemic of "beyond pixie-dust wishful thinking" for at least 20 years on school safety, school discipline , academic expectations, mayoral accountability and high stakes testing.
ReplyDeleteIf teachers are scared to return in person, they should get vaccinated unless they have a medical exemption from vaccines. Remote should be an option for these teachers since there are also parents who want remote for their kids. Krystal of Breaking Points quoted epidemiologist Dr. Murray of Boston University who said vaccines effective at preventing 55% against all infections, 80% against symptomatic infections and 90% or higher against hospitalizations. This data includes the elderly and immune compromised. Healthier/younger people fare better.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2021/08/19/bill-de-blasio-says-public-schools-will-not-be-remote/amp/
ReplyDeleteUmmm, that's a nice interview but DeBlasio does not give a shit.
ReplyDeleteOsterholm brings up some important concerns. The n95 masks for all kids seems like another half measure though. I thought this was key: He is asked by host Chris Dall about the schools. Osterholm responds that the schools are going to be a severe challenge and in a sense we have this real experiment going on and our kids are being experimented on and he has a real problem with that. Osterholm has five grandchildren himself.
ReplyDeleteOur kids should not be experimented on by being forced to go back to school unvaccinated and at risk. No more half measures. Schools should not reopen until all students and parents and teachers and staff and visitors are fully vaccinated including boosters every 8 months. COVID vaccination should be a requirement for citizenship and resident status. ICE can help in this situation by vaccinating the undocumented. COVID vaccination should be the path to citizenship for the undocumented. And those who willfully choose to be a threat and remain unvaccinated should be stripped of their citizenship for not being good citizens.
That will never fly politically. However, unvaccinated should be sequestered just as if they refused polio, MMR, or smallpox.You refuse to behave like an adult, so let's treat you like a kid. Unfortunately we lack vax for stupidity.
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ReplyDeleteI suggest watching other interviews Osterholm has done on covid. He's been spot on from the get-go. Refreshing to hear from someone who knows what they're talking about.
There needs to be protection from administrator retaliation for unvaccinated teachers. All NYC teachers should have 100% anonymity of their vaccination status from admins because there will more than likely be admins who will target known unvaccinated teachers with bad observations. I am not paranoid in this thinking. DeBlasio will blame school Corona cases on unvaccinated teachers and admins will be pushed to "get rid" of the unvaccinated teachers in their buildings. If any teacher receives any email correspondence from admins asking about vaccination status, that teacher must alert a UFT lawyer to make a complaint to the DOE.
ReplyDeleteYou can fight all you like and you will lose. Here is the reasoning:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/legal-and-compliance/employment-law/pages/employers-should-be-cautious-when-asking-about-vaccination-status.aspx
Stripped of citizenry. If the real white wing zealots take over this country, remember you said that. Sounds like you want a civil war. We’d have one right here in nyc. Central Harlem, Washington Heights and half of Morningside vs the rest of the island. My money’s on Harlem and The Heights.
ReplyDeleteTo the person who keeps trying to post links to a pseudoscience website,
ReplyDeleteWe use Media Bias Fact Check to verify sources. Here is what they say about the site you are trying to refer us to:
CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE
Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence...
Overall, we rate _____.com a Quackery level pseudoscience website that advocates for sometimes dangerous, inaction or action, to serious health issues.
Try it somewhere else. Stop wasting your time and mine.
I’m vaccinated, but anyone who feels admins will retaliate against unvaccinated staff really loves conspiracy theories.
ReplyDeleteI know teachers who feel they will face retribution for being remote last year.
Jeez. Go out and get some fresh air and take your masks off lol
Hey anno 2:05. I am totally a conspiracy nut but I also can see when things might actually happen. Admins are aware that there were more than a handful of teachers who got remote status but were traveling all over the place. (I personally know of one teacher on remote that was traveling to Europe while on remote status) Just wait till September and I am sure they will face payback. I also strongly stick by my belief that unvaccinated teachers will be hassled in a big way by admins if their medical status is known.
ReplyDeleteThey should pay if they were remote and doing that.
ReplyDeleteHippa law med records are private.my former admin and payroll secretary blab everyone's very personal medical and personal stuff all over.trust no one in the beauracracy.
No big deal, only heart problems...By the way, this is The Washington Post, certainly left wing...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/08/19/moderna-vaccine-myocarditis/
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ReplyDelete246. .. There was no explicit rule that remote teachers had to be in NY. Also, the admin should not have any medical info on file. When u give a doctor's note for absence, it should not have any info. Just "please excuse"
ReplyDeleteYes, there was no explicit rule that remote teachers had to be in NY. However, IF THEY WERE SO AFRAID OF CATCHING COVID, WHY WERE THEY TRAVELING ALL OVER THE PLACE INSTEAD OF TRYING TO STAY HOME. These teachers gave all of us a bad image. Many of these teachers were not even trying to be sly, as they were posting pictures on social media of themselves in exotic locations while on medical leave. Yes, it was not a lot of teachers but it was enough that many in the public eye noticed. Lastly, how can any unvaccinated teacher be 100% sure that their medical status is not being shared with admins? As of now, unvaccinated teaches will have to quarantine if exposed to a confirmed case at school. Will the admin be told that the teacher is in quarantine because of their unvaccinated status?
ReplyDeleteIf you are unvaccinated, you have to be tested weekly. Admin and everyone else will know who you are. UFT won't do shit for you.
ReplyDeleteUnion members calling for punishment of other union members because they were remote. You’re all a bunch of whiny bitch-ass snitches. Retired and thrilled to be away from colleagues like you.
ReplyDeleteI’m pro vax but…anyone who takes the shot only because they fear their principal, is too cowardly to live amongst the rest of us.
That's the whole problem. Unvaccinated need to be tested weekly but admin and everybody else will know when that information is supposed to be private.
ReplyDeleteDiBlasio said we had the gold standard and I felt safe at least from my experience at my school, however my school was approx 60-70% remote by grade. We have no idea how these procedures will work at full capacity with no chance of social distancing guidelines being met. This includes students who were remote and not use to the masking guidelines and restricted movement. I'm vaccinated and will continue to mask up. I also hold no ill will towards any colleague who was remote.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a huge outbreak or God forbid a student dies this will be DiBlasio's legacy.
Masks are ineffective for children. Especially for the little ones. They play with the mask, touching it all day long with their filthy hands. They drop it on the floor. They use the bathroom and don't wash their hands. Every teacher knows this.
ReplyDeleteThe ones that insist children wear masks are not thinking about children's health, only about their own selfish desire to alleviate the paralyzing fear the suffer from.. pathetic snowflakes.
If parents don't send their kids...city will get a remote option faster..
ReplyDeleteDeBlaz is playing bullshit... hoping parents send their kids... if they don't, DeBlaz loses faster, less people die.. if they do DeBlaz loses later, when someone dies.
Are attendance rates still tied to funding??
@5:59 You’ve expressed one of the “Great Lies” that have duped people into getting symptom retardant shots. The other diseases you mentioned have actual vaccines to prevent infection and they were developed and studied for a long time. The COVID “vaccine” is an experimental gene treatment that only retards symptoms.
ReplyDeleteAlso, what’s with the ad hominems? Arthur Goldstein, is that you? When you lack a reasoned argument, resort to ad hominems and appeals to authority, I guess.
Psst..Hey snowflake. You are the snowflake.
ReplyDeleteOnly a certain demographic uses that term, usually a big fan of Tucker .You say it at work too... and you sound really stupid there... Stop embarrassing yourself.
Sorry if I offended you, you may come out of your safe space now
DeleteBRONX ATR are you still an ATR what is going on with ATRs and RUBBER ROOM
ReplyDeleteDoug, You really expect me to link to a site that has this disclaimer on its website:
ReplyDeleteIF YOU ARE DISSATISFIED WITH ANY OF THE CONTENT OR MATERIALS ON OUR WEBSITE, OR ANY SERVICES OR INFORMATION AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WEBSITE, YOUR SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE REMEDY IS TO DISCONTINUE ACCESSING AND USING OUR WEBSITE. THIS LIMITATION APPLIES EVEN IF YOUR REMEDIES UNDER THIS AGREEMENT FAIL OF THEIR ESSENTIAL PURPOSE.
They know they are full of shit.
Remember a year ago?
ReplyDeleteWe were gung-ho beginning of the school year. Then everything went remote.
It may happen again this year.
I guess your “prophet” is beyond reproach. You’re as pathetic as Arthur Goldstein. Keep censoring dissident voices ! Keep promoting tyranny, segregation, and the agenda of Big Pharma ! I bet your former students are better at critical thinking than your are ! And of course, go fuck yourself !
ReplyDeleteAt the end of the podcast Osterholm discusses a photo a listener sent in: from Lofoten Islands in Norway, above the Arctic Circle. It seems to be a regular segment on the podcast, where he shares something beautiful.
ReplyDeleteAnd it is. Go look up Lofoten - do an image search. Imagine those places under the midnight sun or the Northern Lights.
When this pandemic fades I will go to Lofoten. It is a very soothing thought.
(I was planning to go to Lofoten in July 2022 before I listened to Osterholm. Still nice to have someone agree with you.)
Where will you go when it is safe again...
Jamaica to see Camille's dad, Jonathan.
ReplyDeleteDoug,
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with everything Dr. Osterholm says although he is usually spot on and we pointed out where he was wrong in the post. CIDRAP's funding sources (Gates, Walton, blah blah blah) are a legitimate line of attack and that was not my objection to your comment. It was you linking to sites that I will not promote here. Why do some of you make me waste my time looking up websites that clearly are not legitimate sources and you know I won't print? The rules are fairly simple: stay on topic, avoid the personal insults (that one we let slide too often because they are anonymous so meaningless) and no sources I wouldn't accept from a high school student.
As for my teaching, we did two posts in 2017-18. Judge for yourself what the kids thought of me.
This is a link to when I retired from Middle College:
https://iceuftblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/mixed-emotions-as-i-retire.html
Read some of the comments from the kids.
This is what I advised the readers back in 2017 when doing a shout-out to a wonderful class.
https://iceuftblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/shout-out-to-period-8-class.html
"As for the adults, once again, I'm asking the grown up readers, particularly those who are understandably frustrated by not working in a positive classroom environment, to please refrain from using some of the intemperate language that is used in the comments. This is an open blog that anyone can read and I know for a fact that some of the pupils I work with occasionally drop by."
Now it is my own kids who are old enough to occasionally drop by here so be careful with your suggestions on what I should do.
The point for me, James, is that I don’t think you are in a more legitimate position than Doug or anyone else to judge what is an accurate source.
ReplyDelete@7:18 - that's utterly ridiculous. Perhaps James paid attention in school and can distinguish between credible sources, and outright propaganda. Clearly you and Doug failed that topic. That's not to say that all sources have to agree with the mainstream but it's like the idiots who still use InfoWars as a source after Alex Jones argued in court that he is not to be believed because he suffers from psychosis, is a "performance artist, and his own lawyer said "no reasonable person would believe what he said", but there they are, his supporters, still believing what he says.
ReplyDeleteBut I guess if everyone could discern the difference we wouldn't have so many QAnon followers and Trump cultists.
This is James' blog and he doesn't have to allow propaganda garbage. I wouldn't post half the stuff that gets through.
7:18...James uses a standard. And, It's his blog. He could just block stuff willy nilly, but he doesn't. So, I disagree.
ReplyDeleteWhy did you censor facts about the Mexican border and people from Afghanistan coming in with no vaccine?
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps James didn’t pay attention in school and doesn’t know. Maybe you can upload his school report cards for us to bolster your claim. The term reliable sources is a joke in 2021. I’m vaxed and don’t believe half of James’ “reliable” sources.
ReplyDelete@6:58 except he does. And clearly you don't recognize propaganda garbage when you see it. Just like you asking for me to upload his school report anyone with a brain would know that a random poster on this blog wouldn't have it. But I read his rebuttals and check out his links and *can* discern that he knows what he's talking about and that you are an idiot. Discernment is something you are lacking.
ReplyDelete