Sunday, May 30, 2021

IF ENROLLMENTS ARE DECLINING BUT FUNDS ARE INCREASING, SHOULDN'T LOWER CLASS SIZE BE THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION? NOTHING YET ON EARLY RETIREMENT INCENTIVE AS DEADLINE APPROACHES

Sue Edelman has an article in the NY Post showing declining student enrollments in NYC public schools. 

Here is the first part:

Enrollment in city public schools has fallen below 890,000 students — down from more than a million kids a decade ago, according to internal Department of Education records viewed by The Post.

In late January, DOE officials pegged this year’s enrollment at “approximately 960,000 students” — a 4 percent drop over last year after 43,000 kids exited the system. The latest school registers indicate an additional loss of 70,000 students. 

The DOE disputed that number last week — but refused to give the current enrollment. On Saturday night, the DOE released figures based on what it called audited counts on Nov. 13, 2020, putting citywide enrollment at 1,094,138. Then spokeswoman Danielle Filson tweeted that the number was “955,500 DOE students plus charters for a total of 1.1M”

Remembering how the student enrollment numbers used to decline each school year at Jamaica High School as the school year progressed due to students dropping out or moving away while fewer pupils enrolled mid-year, it is probably not that unusual for there to be a drop in student numbers during any school year systemwide. That decline is probably being accelerated due to the pandemic in 2020-2021. It is possible that Sue's numbers and the DOE's audited numbers from the fall might both be correct and the drop could be real but not that alarming at the end of May. 

Looking ahead, nobody really can project with any degree of accuracy how many families will come back and how many new students will enroll in September but let's assume for argument that Sue is right and there is a significant drop in students attending NYC public schools and that the decline will continue in the fall. Shouldn't lower enrollments combined with more federal and state money and a no-layoff agreement between the UFT and City-DOE that lasts through June 2022, as well as no restrictions on DOE staff hiring lead to lower class sizes?

I'm wondering how lower class sizes won't happen in September with all of the forces that are in place. The UFT inexplicably is only demanding lower class sizes in a mere one hundred schools in the Union's five-point plan for reopening in-person schools for everyone. If ever there was a time to demand it across the board, it is right now. The funds are there and there might even be more space available. I do not for the life of me comprehend why the UFT is not getting strongly behind state Senator Robert Jackson's bill to lower class sizes in NYC.

Maybe the UFT is distracted. Perhaps President Michael Mulgrew is too busy spending all of his lobbying energy trying to convince Mayor Bill de Blasio to sign on to the Early Retirement Incentive for all titles and license areas at the last minute. May 31 is the deadline for the Board of Education (Department of Education) to sign on for the ERI. 

We had an email sent out a week ago from Mulgrew on the ERI. Radio silence since then. All we have heard this weekend is DOENUTS blog speculation. Read his odds. His guess is as good as anyone's today. Once we have more, we will try to blog again. 

95 comments:

  1. Regarding the ERI, I don’t know if negotiations are actually taking place during a holiday weekend but the silence is deafening. I guess it simply depends on your prospective. We will finally know the definitive answer in 24 hours.

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  2. I have lost faith in the ERI being agreed upon. I am wrapping my mind around having to work until 9/22 and walking away.

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  3. 9:57 PM
    You should not retire on 09/22. Pension are frozen on 06/30 and only updates the real number until around October 9. The reason being everyone would retire on the first day of the school year in order to add two months to their pensions. You have to check TRS daily in October to see when they updated your pension. So working 5-6 weeks in the new school year will add 3.5 months to your pension. Of course you will be paid extra for working to 09/22. It just won’t help your pension.

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    1. And how is that extra salary counted toward your pension in your opinion?

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    2. You get another 3.5 months to your pension. It will slightly raise your 3 year average. However, if you retire on 09/22 July, August, and September up to the 22 will not be part of your pension. Just retire 2 weeks later. Most people retire at the end of the school year. So this does not affect them. This was a unique situation. Most people don’t retire in September. I’m just trying to help. You can track it on the TRS website. Your years and months don’t go up at all after 06/30. You will keep seeing the same number till October.

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  4. 9:57 PM
    You should not retire on 09/22. Pension are frozen on 06/30 and only updates the real number until around October 9. The reason being everyone would retire on the first day of the school year in order to add two months to their pensions. You have to check TRS daily in October to see when they updated your pension. So working 5-6 weeks in the new school year will add 3.5 months to your pension. Of course you will be paid extra for working to 09/22. It just won’t help your pension.

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  5. TRS calculates pensionable time as 36 days a month ( 30 plus 6) multiply those 36 days by the 10 month school year and you get the "TRS year" of 360 days I do not believe that those who do not work July and August accrue pensionable credit

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  6. Lousy union, lousy results.

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  7. My pension goes up $376 a month on TRS. If I worked till October 15 my pension would be worth an extra $1316 annually. This really only applies to people who are considering retiring in September.

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  8. I’m not surprised about all the politics involved with the incentive. This is a cliff hanger for sure. Awaiting the grand news conference today. Does Mulgrew want to be a hero today? The Mayor a hero to teachers and municipal workers? Happy Memorial Day to all.

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  9. What should be done vs what will be done? NYC will not lower class size. The political machine of nyc has no political or financial interest in lower class size. Money and politics are behind every decision they make. Best interest of students always takes a back seat to the machine’s political needs.

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  10. Are we going to be able to adjust our trs contributions for July 14th when we get the back pack and adjust it right back after? I haven't seen any info still confirming this. I remember weeks ago in the town hall Mulgrew said we would know in a week and it's been 4 and still nothing.

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  11. Even with all the Federal and State $, very little will probably change, because this is a one-shot deal and will not be sustained.

    It would also be a good strategy, to negotiate to have the ERI at end of next year, when the City will actually want to reduce staffing, rather than now, when it doesn't.

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  12. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb negotiated in bad faith to throw the UFT rank and file under the bus with the ERI.

    June 1st is tomorrow.

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  13. It's May 31st and no word from Mulgrew on the ERI. We get shit on yet again.

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  14. How about we build 5 new schools in each borough, should happen years ago. Kick out these charter cockroaches from DOE schools. Why would DOE fund these cockroaches?

    Why is it so damn hard to do a 25/50? Cops & firefighters got 20, we still would be doing an extra 5 years, common sense, why would they help us out?

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  15. Maybe, no news is good news? One can hope. That’s all we have at this point.

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  16. So Anon:1:29 —you are saying if a person is able to retire about October 16- 2021 rather than July 1, 2021 or even Sept 22, 2021–there is potential for an additional 3.5 months of pension credit. Based on the DOE calendar : if a teacher has at least 23 sick days —they can take terminal leave starting September 13 and retire October 16–assuming it’s not too late for terminal leave application for the fall—since it’s already June 1. A person would also receive 2 additional sick days in their bank for September and October and additional TDA credit. I believe they would also get a 1.5 month prorated summer check in June 2022..Bottom line, they can just report to their site on September 9 and 10 to clean up their belongings and say their goodbyes. The only downside, no income after October 31 paycheck—probably till November 30–which would be a temporary 75% estimate of their monthly retirement allowance from TRS—until finalization around January 1, 2022 at the earliest.
    Does that scenario make any sense or should a teacher say —forget it and just leave on July 1?

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    1. I think most people should retire at the end of the school year because you get double pay, pension and summer checks in August. I just had a final and they said it only takes one month now to get your first slightly reduced pension check. Anyone who retires during the school year faces the same dilemma. How can I survive waiting for a month? In that case I would retire on a paycheck day to make that wait less stressful. I am not telling people to use this strategy. I was only commenting to the person who said they were retiring September 22. That person should retire in October. We don’t get the extra sick day if we retire in the middle of the month. I know it says you get your new sick day in the middle of the month on payroll portal. However, you don’t get credit for it till the end of the month. So a person who retires on October 15 will only get credit for one sick day in September. This was all explained to me at my final as well because I was considering retiring in September. I think financially speaking most people should retire at the end of the school year as stated above. Just don’t retire on September 22 is all I’m saying.

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  17. Is there really even a chance that something can happen today given that it is a national holiday? I would like to be optimistic, but I somehow do not see Mayor DeBlasio spending today on the phone or in a meeting room hashing out final details to announce an E.R.I.

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  18. Why would the city give an ERI, when everyone wants out? Sorry, it’s not happening. As for lower class size, that ain’t happening either - it’ll go into hiring more educrats at Tweed. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Tie your handkerchief to a stick and leave now - don’t look back - the DOE was built on the ashes of Sodom and Gomorrah.

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  19. The obsession with leaving early is insane. If you hate the job that much, resign and collect at 62 or whatever the age is. The South and Midwest are affordable and cheap.

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    Replies
    1. It was stated to me at my final that I can move to any state I want to. I don’t have to pay state income taxes on my pension. You also don’t have to pay state income taxes on any TDA withdrawal just as long as the amount is $20,000 or less. If you choose to keep living in NY State after you retire you won’t have to pay state taxes on any withdrawal. There is no cap.

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    2. It was stated to me at my final that I can move to any state I want to. I don’t have to pay state income taxes on my pension. You also don’t have to pay state income taxes on any TDA withdrawal just as long as the amount is $20,000 or less. If you choose to keep living in NY State after you retire you won’t have to pay state taxes on any withdrawal. There is no cap.

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  20. Anonymous 9:57- I've always heard the reason most people retire July 1 versus the day after Labor day is because they will get their steady pay for the summer AND be two months into the pension "process" of getting their regular pension check. If you retire say September 9th this year (1st day of school) I always believed you would get the 2 months of credit for July and August but would just be starting what can up to 5 months of figuring out your final pension amount (albeit emergency checks are provided that estimate your pension). I never heard you have to work up to October 9th to get credit for July August etc. It doesn't make sense - and using your logic, teachers who come back just until October 9 then retire, screw over principals just as much as those who decide to retire day after Labor day.

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    Replies
    1. When does the DOE ever make sense. You don’t have to believe me. Follow your years and days on TRS this summer and September. Once again this is for someone who wants to retire in September. It’s a small cohort as most people retire at the end of the school year.

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  21. I understand sept 2021 will be chaotic and The Mayor doesn't want too many people leaving to make things worse. But at least come out and make your position clear. Ignoring people and the issue is not so decent.

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  22. In addition to no word on the ERI possibility—still no word on further negotiations on potential changes to Medicare for retirees. These are indeed very shaky times for the UFT retirees and those teachers that are thinking about to retiring on July 1 and after. Of course, not clear about the healthcare changes that could impact in-service UFT people as well.

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  23. James, why are you allowing pension advice on your blog, I thought you always said leave it to the professionals.

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  24. Please call UFT and TRS for pension advice. Don't take advice from anonymous comments on a blog. The comments are on topic so they fly.

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  25. Anonymous 1:35 and this, I believe, is the real reason for no ERI. The Chancellor knows that having tons of brand spanking new teachers in the fall with kids who haven't been in the classroom for a year and a half is a recipe for disaster. I could be completely wrong, and we may still hear something- but I've lost hope.

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  26. Anon 11:58 That’s absolutely true. If you went to the NYS See Trough Pension site—you can see that a good percent of teachers retired on July 1 or February 1 -with a very low percent in September or October. The term ‘double dipping’ was often used to describe - the July 1 retirees got paid for July and August and would also get full pension for those same months. TRS pays out an estimated pension about 6 weeks after you retire by mid August—on a monthly basis —and then usually by 3 to 4 months after your retirement— you get your full pension along with any back pay..

    UFT retiree consultants have always said—that a teacher should retire whenever they have had enough —no matter what time of the year it might be. Just have the forms filled out then get them notarized and ready to submit—along with any other official documents. or certificates.
    And don’t worry about screwing principals—because they too could decide to retire at a moments notice.

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  27. Eri?
    Teachers choice?
    Spring break pay?
    Par for the course. Dues well spent.

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  28. One would think that a teacher seriously considering about retiring would have already contacted TRS or the UFT for accurate information. Also, if possible—any teacher considering retirement sometime during the next 3 to 5 years—should attend any TRS workshop or UFT pension consultation and all Tier IV pension clinics —either on-line or in person. They are very helpful.and certainty more accurate than the info offered by the commenters—although many here mean well-but are certainly not the experts.

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    1. I’ve called TRS more than one and I’ve got advice people here vehemently deny. I’m not sure who to believe at this point. I’ll just retire when they throw me out.

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    2. I’ve called TRS more than one and I’ve got advice people here vehemently deny. I’m not sure who to believe at this point. I’ll just retire when they throw me out.

      Delete
    3. I’ve called TRS more than one and I’ve got advice people here vehemently deny. I’m not sure who to believe at this point. I’ll just retire when they throw me out.

      Delete
  29. Mulgrew? Mulgrew? Mulgrew?........

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  30. I'm thinking "smaller" class sizes by putting a co-teacher in every classroom. The teacher to student ratio goes from 25:1 to 12.5:1 overnight and everyone with a microphone can pretend that class sizes actually got smaller. The ERI would have/will have made it possible to do what probably should have been done years ago for less money in the short and long term.

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  31. A brand spanking new teacher and a veteran in every classroom! Who's with me?

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    Replies
    1. I'm with you @3:19 pm however the DOE is a big dumb dumb so it'll never fly with them

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  32. "Remembering how the student enrollment numbers used to decline each school year at Jamaica High School as the school year progressed due to students dropping out or moving away while fewer pupils enrolled mid-year, it is probably not that unusual for there to be a drop in student numbers during any school year systemwide. That decline is probably being accelerated due to the pandemic in 2020-2021. It is possible that Sue's numbers and the DOE's audited numbers from the fall might both be correct and the drop could be real but not that alarming at the end of May. "

    I think you nailed it. Enrollment is down, and will be down, but comparing May to November in ANY YEAR would show a big drop.

    It is annoying that Filson/Porter are screwing around by lumping charter school numbers in with public school numbers. Intentionally misleading people is dishonest.

    Jonathan

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  33. Now, it is 5:07pm on 05/31/2021. Last bit hope of ERI is all gone.
    Can we wish for ERI at the end of the next schools year?

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  34. I think you can officially put a fork in the ERI for 2021. Hope the other unions that have until June 30 to work out a deal learn from the failures of Mulgrew. It really bothers me that no one in the UFT was able to benefit from all the effort that went into getting the ERI to this point. I guess he will explain himself in the coming days unless he left town on Friday and isn’t coming back. 😂

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  35. After dangling that ERI carrot for months now, Mulgrew has created expectations and now undue stress on his membership. I believe the ERI will be offered next year when the stimulus money dries up. The budget is really not good and the Mayor has done us all a disservice by not addressing the problem. He’ll leave a budgetary mess for the next Mayor. Not sure when Mulgrew’s tenure expires but let this situation show us that we need new leadership. He has not served the membership well and not getting the ERI is just one of his many failures.

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  36. I am in the minority but I thought he would pull the incentive out of his hat.

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  37. Re ERI no updates: these elected representatives of ours are cruel sadists.
    Ask yourself what do the likes of Mulgrew and Deblasio have in common, and unless you yourself are a masochistic...vote for a different type next time.

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  38. I hope everyone can put the ERI at rest. I’m NOT surprised or shocked by what happened. I retired in June 2020. I had a former colleague who kept throwing the impending ERI in my face ... I had missed it, ha ha ha. I anticipated that these ruthless thugs- Mulgrew, De Blasio and the city would again rip us off. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
    Now they’re messing with our healthcare.

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  39. With just about 6 hours to go, no one is meeting on the ERI. Better luck next year.

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  40. Yup, very cruel 5:41. Question is why?

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  41. Waiting for the TRS ti out a new notice on their site—probably tomorrow —
    ‘Sorry NYC teachers about the possibility of any Early Retirement Incentive—try again, next year.’.

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  42. Dues well spent. Why are you surprised?

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  43. hope for next year eri has language for a 50 years age - 30 years service no penalty clause-- i would be eligable with the added months. one can only keep hope alive at this point.

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  44. ERI is done deal. Please do not exasperate your spirit. May 31, as any day has 24 hours. Have your champagne bottle ready to celebrate our ERI. I trust Michael Mulgrew in this negotiation.

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  45. You can trust Mulgrew that the final details of the ERI deal is being negotiated by his brain trust at this very moment.

    The ERI will be another great victory for the UFT.

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  46. I feel we'll have an ERI shortly. Mulgrew knows the optics with this

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  47. Can you imagine...I pay to be treated like this?

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  48. The Mulgrew's brain trust are now ordering the large deli platter with your UFT dues.
    They are working down to the wire this holiday weekend to get your ERI deal done.

    Mulgrew ordered extra pickles and coleslaw for himself with your UFT dues. It looks like another great UFT victory is going to be announced by Mulgrew soon aft the deli platter is consumed.

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  49. With friends like these, who needs a union?
    https://portside.org/2021-05-31/closed-door-negotiations-between-new-york-city-and-unions-representing-city-workers?fbclid=IwAR2YM06hJQJzyFKjXo2bf5V6ekmCxBWvp5JtK28fBowKnx2sW-q8nEpGHJ8

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  50. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on meTuesday, June 01, 2021 2:51:00 AM

    Mulgrew is a politician like Deblasio. Another words-he lies, does what's best for HIMSELF and tells us half truths.

    I believe Mulgrew would prefer an incentive next year when he is up for reelection. ERI will make people happy and he would want to take advantage of that-he has to get votes from somewhere right?

    Mulgrew is a Piece of shit like DeBlasio. I do believe in Karma and truly hope he will no longer be the UFT president after the next election.

    Deblasio-screwed us yet again-we should have been guarenteed an incentive after giving uet another 10 month interest free loan to the city.
    Karma people karma..

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  51. Wow. No updates all weekend long. Knowing the vast interest in the ERI and he doesn’t have the common decency, even at the deadline, to let membership know that he could not get an agreement. It’s simply unacceptable.

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  52. Where is your ERI now?

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  53. We're all praising Porter but is she going to do anything about what happened at Maspeth two years ago and all the other fraudulent grading going on or is she going to simply sweep it under the rug. You know in the doe the ends justify the means. As long as you have the graduation rate, who cares how you got it?

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  54. Guess we will find out officially when the TRS and NYCERS update their webpages.

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  55. The silence from negiciators is a sign that the IER outcomes will be satisfactory for all parts. Remember: IER is a political subject, therefore nobody wants to be looser.

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  56. MULGREW SENT EMAIL.NO ERI.city looking to hire not reduce staff.waiting game is over.

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  57. This is on the TRS website under important news-
    I guess it's not happening.

    May 31 was the deadline for the City to decide about offering an Early Retirement Incentive to certain Department of Education employees, some of whom may be TRS members. Since no agreement was reached by May 31, there will be no retirement incentive.

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  58. This is what TRS posted under important news -

    Is it safe to say it won't be happening....

    May 31 was the deadline for the City to decide about offering an Early Retirement Incentive to certain Department of Education employees, some of whom may be TRS members. Since no agreement was reached by May 31, there will be no retirement incentive.

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  59. The city will not offer an early retirement

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  60. Thall67, doubtful. If that was the case then why is it that your DR is only now communicating this possibility today? That message should have come from the union to all members during the weekend.

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  61. So how will the next Mayor —whether it be Adams, Garcia or Yang ( very unlikely-for Stringer —he was doomed the day the UFT supported him)- deal with another ERI down the the road? For that matter, how will the UFT President get along with any new Mayor? Wasn’t it Mulgrew that conveyed the belief that DeBlasio was supposedly the most friendly Mayor to the UFT in over 30 years?

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  62. UFT just sent out an email.
    The city will not offer the ERI - despite all the UFTs efforts. Yeah, right!

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  63. Just received the email from UFT confirming no ERI this year, not mentioning anything else.
    No idea if there will be any effort next school year 2022.

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  64. Check email... No ERI

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  65. UFT just sent an Email stating no ERI This year.

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  66. It's all over. UFT just sent an email. No ERI

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  67. All of you are really funny. Or sad. You get what you pay for. Don't say you weren't warned.

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  68. I’m sad for all the veteran teachers that want a reason to leave, as if working conditions aren’t reason enough. We’re not going to see an ERI until the city runs out of money. That should happen in 2023. Let’s focus on getting a raise in each year of the next contract.

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  69. I have two years remaining after this one. 58 yo, and 23 years in. I am no longer going to assume we'll ever get an ERI. My own personal count down is on. 6/30/23, I will be
    liberated. 360 something school days. I get to leave on my own terms. The city is going to be drowning in red ink this time next year. Whatever the next mayor feels about our union, or educators in general, they'll have to seriously consider an ERI. But I certainly won't count on it. It's the old cutting your nose to spite your face thing. Oh well. 360 days and counting.

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  70. I’m sad for all the veteran teachers that want a reason to leave, as if working conditions aren’t reason enough. We’re not going to see an ERI until the city runs out of money. That should happen in 2023. Let’s focus on getting a raise in each year of the next contract.

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  71. Reality check:if city is rolling in dough and they need more staff, why would they offer an ERI? They aren't in the charity business.it will not benefit them. When they need to offer it,it will be there.(I can't help but wonder if this a Cuomo set up to make himself look nice and make Diblasio look bad, knowing it didn't make fiscal sense and it likely would not have public support.Remember, we went from hero to villain...the NY Post had un justified field day with Randi and UFT.not that I likethem...they blame uft for all the remote learning and school closings!) So he trapped Di B making him look bad.if Cuomo didn't approve, the anger would go to HIM.and both are looking for reelection. Despite the screwups and ways he trashed the city, he is still the most friendly to teachers compared to other politicians.yeah we got crummy raises in last contract.imagine if it was still Bloomie where we would be...God knows what the next 12 months will bring.pray that it gets better...

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  72. I'm glad no eri.finally got a great supervisor who is close to retirement.so she will stay at least two years.after that, we'll see...let's think positive.lots of transfer opportunities.maybe mesh will change fair student funding...have hope.but don't stay if the job is stealing your health.btw, when is this Medicare crap happening?another reason to stayin and keep ghi.

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  73. fkn insult to injury from the mulgrew email making excuses as if he worked for deblasio. what a pos.

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  74. You all got fucked. Now medicare goes. With friends like this, who needs a union.
    https://portside.org/2021-05-31/closed-door-negotiations-between-new-york-city-and-unions-representing-city-workers?fbclid=IwAR3girJVi-ZAmmJehZuoLgeEmzY7SuzMo1Buvl3AETmsAR1_QzjZn16AzP0

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  75. I wonder if there will be layoffs next year when the money runs out.

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    Replies
    1. Money won’t run out until 2023. It’s being disbursed over 2 years. That’s my understanding.

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  76. So we may revisit it after 2 years.

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    Replies
    1. That’s my take on it. By 2023/24 the city will be broke. I’ll be there to help bail them out though!

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    2. That’s my take on it. By 2023/24 the city will be broke. I’ll be there to help bail them out though!

      Delete
  77. What will happen to ATRS who had 3020a trial and WON there case
    and were forced to be ATRS anyway? ANYBODY

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  78. We posted what DOE put out to principals. It is all right there.

    https://iceuftblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/the-doe-message-to-principals-on-atr.html?m=1

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  79. ATRs with any disciplinary issues/ that won 3020a, etc. would be reviewed on a case by case basis. May be placed permanently, may not. Priincipals will receive their notification 6.11 and staff on 6.18.21.

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  80. Loser think: we could do worse.

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  81. Agree David Sucker. The funds will dry out by 2023/24.

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