Monday, September 26, 2022

NYC ECONOMY GROWING

 Gothamist reports on the state of New York City's economy. The city's economy is not in a recession.

New York City’s recovery has been sluggish and uneven. The city lags behind the country and other major cities when it comes to regaining jobs lost during the pandemic. The slowest recovery has been in sectors with lower wage jobs like hospitality and retail.

Nonetheless, jobs are steadily returning, according to James Parrott, the director of economic and fiscal policy at the New School’s Center for New York City Affairs.

In August, the city added 24,000 jobs, according to data from the city’s Office of Management and Budget. Parrott said the figure is in line with the average monthly growth so far this year.

The city’s unemployment rate rose last month. However, the uptick was driven by a rise in job seekers — a sign that people are feeling more encouraged by the job market.

City tax revenues have yet to decline, despite Wall Street’s lagging performance this year.

Data compiled by the city Independent Budget Office (IBO), a nonpartisan agency, shows that city tax revenues grew between 2019 and 2021.

The IBO is projecting that combined tax revenues will increase this year as well. Money collected from property taxes, however, is expected to fall.

Nobody is saying that there isn't a real risk of a recession but the city does not need to be that worried. One of the causes for optimism for the city is nobody is expecting municipal union raises to be anywhere near the inflation rate.

Some budget experts have cautioned against making sky-is-falling predictions about the city’s fiscal future, saying the recent shortfall projections represent worst-case scenarios and that the economic conditions are still fluid.

Two factors driving the multi-billion dollar deficits are inflation and the struggling stock market. Both could cause the city’s labor costs to skyrocket, via upcoming contract negotiations with unions and pension investments.

The state comptroller’s office has said increases in union wages would cost taxpayers an additional $3.6 billion in 2026 under the projected inflation rate. That’s in addition to the $10 billion shortfall.

However, George Sweeting, the acting director of the IBO, said union raises have not always matched the inflation rate.

“So the assumption that it would be the same as the inflation rate may not hold,” he said.

The projected $10 billion budget hole assumes that Wall Street’s recent slide will force the city to contribute billions of dollars into its pension funds to meet the level of payments promised to municipal retirees.

But the stock market could recover some of its losses, blunting the impact on the city coffers.

Parrott stressed that the state comptroller is obligated to take a cautious approach in its fiscal forecast, one that uses conservative revenue estimates and assumes conditions for the city will not improve.

“That’s the nature of the reports they do,” he said. “It’s a risk-assessment approach to financial management.”

We can count on the unions to settle for much less than what the State Comptroller is projecting. We have Michael Mulgrew leading us who as usual will look out for the city more than his members. Members need to stand up and fight for fair raises. 

68 comments:

  1. Why bother posting this?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cancel all the mandates. For all.
    The recovery will speed up.
    But speedy recovery is not what Adams and his minions were installed for, is it?

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  3. Teachers unions don’t care about kids…or teachers.

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  4. I think that teachers (well, all union workers in NYC) should remind this mayor that when people tighten their personal budgets they don't buy things and we certainly don't buy local because we can find cheaper prices of required things elsewhere. My rent is going up at a scary rate (next year looming renewal is terrifying); and with no pay increase in the near or far future and 1.5 years of 0%, I'm not buying anything extra. No new clothes or shoes. No household items. I only buy food that is on sale and will go to different stores for the lower price. I only take mass transit when I have no other choice; otherwise I walk. I rarely eat out or buy pre-made food now. Special things like having my trainer at the gym is probably something I have to stop soon.

    I will be putting max into my TDA and as much as I can into the 457 so I can afford actual medicare and good medical care when I retire. And, I will probably will have to stay longer in teaching even though the powers that be have made it a misery.

    Teachers have to come into the city, unlike a lot of workers. We spend money in the city and some of us live in it. He keeps telling workers to come back, WE ARE HERE. And, we need to show with our purse strings that we aren't going to spend it here.

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  5. It doesn't matter that the city has plenty of money. In fact, it doesn't matter if it is raining gold in the city. The fact is that Adams is delusional and will cry poverty just to screw the hard working unions of NYC.

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  6. Why can't members vote NO on the contract? i remeber doing so and a contract was reworked many years ago.

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    Replies
    1. They’re stupid. Now tell me what the uft dues for you.

      Delete
  7. They will all be sorry in a few years when they really have a teaching shortage and they'll be hiring high school students to teach classes.

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  8. I read about such terrible suffering everywhere in the world. Then to hear such violent whining on this bog, especially about " only" getting g 7% in TDA. It's pretty nauseating.

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    Replies
    1. No, don’t bullshit. It’s that the tda dropped. We have medical, it got worse and more expensive. We have a contract, very weak. We get raises, which are tiny.

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  9. Members can vote no on a contract. Do you trust the current UFT that the no vote will be counted? I have no faith in the current UFT that the votes are counted honestly. In the 1990's, there was a contract proposal in which the no votes outnumbered the yes votes.

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  10. I’ve seen nyc go through hard financial times and economic boons. No matter what, nyc has always claimed they don’t have enough to do right by paying us genuine raises that meet or beat inflation. I don’t see NY escaping the recession, James. We’re still waiting for Biden’s “transitory, short term “ ahem bullshit inflation to peak. We’re still waiting for the stock and bond market to stop tumbling. NY natural gas prices set to soar. (To the renter above whose lease is up… I’ll bet your landlord looks for a big increase to heat your apartment whether it’s oil or gas). Heating oil has increased from 1.89 to 2.89 per gallon in pre COVID to 4.80 as of today… down a little bit from 5.29 last spring but winter fuel demand will likely increase it again. The US economy is in horrible shape and I can’t see NY being an exception. But even if it is, we will not get a decent raise and they’re going to mess with our health coverage. Good luck to the renter above who is already scrimping. Dismantling American energy is going to continue to cost each of us some serious cash.

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    1. I’ve been posting about the anticipated high energy costs coming after the election for the last 2 weeks but mysteriously the posts never showed up on the blog. The president has been draining our strategic oil reserves to drive down energy costs. It’s at a dangerously low level and still dropping. James what’s more important to you, getting to the truth on economic matters that impacts union workers like all of us or trying to possibly give shade to the specific political you support? We are in for long cold, dreary and possibly dangerous year ahead. We need policies that help American workers who need it. You talk a good game about unions and I agree with most of it but economic policy needs to put the needs of us first. Watching tv again today and still all about Jan 6. We need kitchen table issues being fairly discussed in the public forum.

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  11. What kind of financial shape is NYC in? Can it afford to pay higher wages, even real (that is, above inflation) wage increases on its employees with new collectively bargained agreements?

    The newspapers may lean Left or Right and play loose with the numbers just like the mayor and the presidents of unions. So not the best, most objective source to use if want to answer our question.

    How about listening to what investors in NYC municipal bonds, the biggest investors in the future of our city, say about the financial health of our city?

    Investors are putting billions of dollars into MYC bonds because they are safe and will be even safer as the City's economy is projected to improve. These investors and the rating agencies they depend on, like S&P, Moody's, Fitch . . . all agree that NYC is a great place to invest monies. And these funds could find a home in lots of municipalities and states, but money is flowing into our city as the outlook for our city is positive.

    https://www.fitchratings.com/research/us-public-finance/fitch-rates-new-york-city-ny-1-08b-go-bonds-aa-outlook-revised-to-positive-12-05-2022

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  12. I’m ready to quit and find another higher paying job with better benefits. Our medical and dental plans are awful. Our pay has remained the same. Meanwhile gas, electricity, milk, eggs are are significantly higher. All other sectors recognize inflation and increasing their pay. Even other cities are giving a much bigger raise to teachers. I’m sick of being asked to do more and more but getting paid less and less (when inflation is taken as a factor). I have no hope for the upcoming contract, knowing how the union has screwed us in the past. If anyone has any suggestions of a better career, please post.

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  13. The Biden boogey man is at it again: The president has been draining our strategic oil reserves to drive down energy costs
    And so it's bad to drive down energy costs?
    Of course the Trump favored Saudis worked to keep costs down for him and will drive costs up to get rid of Biden and Democrats for 2024.
    Did this guy talk about oil profits? Not at all. Let's advocate a windfall profit tax on them. Better yet, nationalize them all.

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    Replies
    1. You can spin it all you want but the reality, yes reality not feelings is that our energy supplies are getting low and it’s going to cause financial pain to union workers like us, that’s the bottom line. Biden is not the boogeyman he has no idea what’s going on. I said in a previous post and to stay with James on not blaming any political party we need sound economic and energy policies from both dems and republicans. As middle class union workers who have spent years building our nest eggs this is unacceptable. I hope we all can agree our leaders of both parties have sold our economy to the globalists

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    2. Didn’t Biden beg the saudis to pump more oil? Strange for a president that is against fossil fuels and is in charge of a country who has the worlds largest energy reserves to beg another country for oil. I wonder why? But this is. It about one politician or one political party. As union members we have many economic and work related challenges that our union and governments are not solving. I hope as a nation we all can learn a lesson from the current state of our country and implement policies that make us energy independent and economically prosperous. I can’t imagine allowing millions of people to break federal law entering Our country helps union workers. I can’t imagine letting violent criminals out of jail helps union workers I can’t imagine not prosecuting law breakers helps union workers. I can’t imagine not producing enough energy to support our industrial nation helps union workers. I can’t imagine…..Am I wrong? Thanks

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  14. Dems have the White House, house, senate, mayor, governor, ny senators, doe and uft…who do you want to blame?

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    1. 1:25 Stop it. Dems don't "have the Senate". Most things need 60 votes and Manchin and the other DINO aren't helping any.

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    2. They don’t? How did they pass 6 trillion of spending that no Republican voted for? How did Biden pass half a trillion in college debt bailout by exec order? But they can’t do anything. Gimme a break.

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    3. 3:55 you did not answer the
      "...Having dems in White House, house, senate, mayor, governor, ny senators, doe and uft…who do you want to blame?" qn.
      The overbearing ruling of a destructive and corrupt agenda has nothing to do with the 60 votes anywhere in those places now, especially when Executive Orders, Emergency and Judiciary Powers are abused.

      Delete
  15. The Cost of Biden’s Student Loan Write-off: $420 Billion

    Every American will have to pay more because of Biden and the Democrats’ decision to bailout the wealthy.

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  16. Shelly, maybe you don't remember the Great Recession of 2007-09?
    Right before the crash began then, Fitch, Moody's, S&P, etc., all had stellar ratings on companies issuing stocks and bonds that went bankrupt, or would have had the Feds not rescued them. Heard of Enron?
    Many economists now are predicting a collapse that will make us wish for those days.
    Believing these corporate rating agencies is your business.
    But imo, the structural problems caused by the federal government can't be solved this next time by the same thinking that got us here.
    No one is coming to our rescue. And Fitch doesn't give refunds. Gl.

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  17. "No mayor, in modern times at least, has expended so much energy for so such limited ends. It is something to behold." Ross Barkan

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  18. I have not posted because James has been literally censoring myself and 90% people who have an opposing case even with articles that pass his liberal bent media smell check. James is super dedicated and great with education and school matters and when it comes to helping members, I love it. James politics and policies he aligns with are killing families literally. 3 years of vaccine pushing and now that has crumbled. Psal has lifted the vaccine ban thank god.

    @10:45 is correct oil prices are going to crush families this winter. 200,000 smart families/students left the DOE. No contract, inflation higher than ever, stick market and our 401k being hit hard, no extra income to supplement yet worried about jan 6th? Feels much different with dems in power not trump. Praying Zeldin wins because there is no UNity if dems control everything, the party of inclusion 🤣

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    1. He just censored my latest post. Hope this gets through
      We are hard working union members who have different opinions. We should be allowed to freely voice them without the all knowing all censoring Eterno picking which narrative he wants to convey to the readers of a blog that is only informative when it comes to specific union issues. I thank you James but stop censoring we are all adults. Well I try to be thanks

      Delete
  19. But the uft is the strongest and has a 500 member team...

    Americans are paying more for just about everything because of inflation:
    Eggs ⬆️ 39.8%
    Airlines ⬆️ 33.4%
    Gas ⬆️ 25.6%
    Food at employee sites and schools ⬆️ 23.7%
    Milk ⬆️ 17.0%
    Bread ⬆️ 16.2%
    Electricity ⬆️ 15.8%
    Transportation services ⬆️ 11.3%

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  20. Growing?

    In 1931, the S&P 500 dropped for a total of 33 weeks throughout the year.

    We are currently at 24, ranking 2022 second in terms of the percentage of the year stocks have lost money.

    We are close to having the worst year in the path of stocks in history.

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  21. I've seen this movie before. I am hoping in October (when contract negotiations technically begin), we have our answer to what kind of shape New York is in. We will see (hopefully) what type of raises and potential givebacks are in our contract. There is going to be backpay for every single day we work until we get a new contract starting from the day after the contract expired.

    Our contract will finally give us proof to what type of men Eric Adams and David Banks are. Are they there for lip service, parties, and for Democratic talking point phrases? Are they there to stand with educators to help middle class people? Are they there to help us teach all children and give everyone a chance to succeed? It's not even "show me the money" for me. It's about giving us something fair in a trying time for a lot of people.

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  22. The city always cries pauper when it comes to negotiating contracts—especially with the UFT. Always seems that NYC teachers get shafted. The 2005 and 2009 were the worst contacts in UFT history—and wouldn’t be surprised if Mulgrew negotiates a deal that even worse in the coming year.

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  23. And the dues payers are there to pay Mulgrew to screw us. Smart.

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  24. I put through everything but the rac8st garbage for this post. I am getting tired of monitoring irrelevant comments.

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    Replies
    1. Facts can be pesky for some.

      Delete
    2. You let this through but not mine
      Crafting your own narrative again
      Bravo

      Delete
  25. Our Union's negotiations for an Agreement needs to use some accepted and agreed to measure of the current and projected state of the economy and budget, and specifically the economy and budget of NY state and NYC, along with the costs of other Agreements for bargained workers and the projected inflation rate.

    What the mayor or governor says is always going to be spin about how the city and/or state can't pay its bills and grow the economy.

    So toss that out.

    Replace it with accepted and agreed to measures of the current and projected state of the economy and budget.

    Take all givebacks or concession bargaining off the table.

    When this is done we can see that we should get a big raise in real wages (inflation plus a wage increase).







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  26. Hope everyone enjoyed their much needed 4 day weekend. I personally have be stressing out with the thought of going back.
    I am a new teacher. The school I am currently in has a cancel culture and attacks teachers rather than support their growth. I need out.
    How much time do I have to give as notice of my resignation? How does this affect my return to DOE next school year, or further down the line? Am I able to return?
    How long do I have to manage the funds I have contributed to my QPP and TDA?
    If I were to find a position at a charter school, how does that work?
    Can anyone who has been down this road offer some words of encouragement?
    My main concern is lack of health Insurance or being discontinued. Thank you.
    Enjoy that last minutes of time! Hope everyone enjoyed their much needed 4 day weekend. I personally have be stressing out with the thought of going back.
    I am a new teacher. The school I am currently in has a cancel culture and attacks teachers rather than support their growth. I need out.
    How much time do I have to give as notice of my resignation? How does this affect my return to DOE next school year, or further down the line? Am I able to return?
    How long do I have to manage the funds I have contributed to my QPP and TDA?
    If I were to find a position at a charter school, how does that work?
    Can anyone who has been down this road offer some words of encouragement?
    My main concern is lack of health Insurance and/or being discontinued.

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    Replies
    1. @758pm. Firstly whoosah. Secondly, if you've earned your MS in education--you are half way there. You are theoretically prepared. Please note that there is no college that can prepare you for admin who need psychiatric help. As you now know this isn't a cake walk BUT you CAN make it tomorrow. Focus on TOMORROW. For now. Please give yourself some grace. The students admin colleagues etc are just pieces of the puzzle. Whoosah. Go in tomorrow prepared to do your best. One period at a time. You're new so when you make mistakes learn and don't repeat them. The way I see it is If you plan to leave teaching, why stress out? Learn from this experience. You should find out if charter school employment is better than DOE employment. If you have to leave your school, ask folks,Google etc which schools are "decent" Can you stick it out for a year? Until Christmas?
      What do you mean by "manage" your TDA/QPP? Try not to be hard on yourself. My first few weeks had me thinking about working at McD every day. Lol. It certainly got better with time. Good luck.

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    2. This job isn’t worth your peace of mind. Get out as soon as you can and don’t look back. The system is a bunch of nonsense that will make anyone stressed out. Not sure how I made 27yrs but it was a bite easier until 2007. Don’t let the lack of healthcare keep you from leaving you will find something much better. Good luck

      Delete
    3. I recommend trying to go for as long as you can. Email me anytime

      Delete
  27. What a nerve this guy - He just censored my latest post. Hope this gets through
    We are hard working union members who have different opinions. We should be allowed to freely voice them without the all knowing all censoring Eterno picking which narrative he wants to convey to the readers of a blog that is only informative when it comes to specific union issues. I thank you James but stop censoring we are all adults. Well I try to be thanks

    Do you pay James for your right to post here? Big shot - go start a blog and say whatever you want. Leaching on the work of others. If I were in charge I'd ban you from being allowed to read -- red lights would go on all over your neighborhood whenever you try to read it.

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    Replies
    1. Ok great thanks for your response.

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    2. @849pm. Hilarious. I needed that! "Red lights..." Thanks for saying what I was thinking.

      Delete
  28. I got censored without bringing up race. All I said is that dropping mandates will help to stop the exodus of workers that left since the summer of 2021. I compared NYC to Xinjiang. Nothing racist there unless James wants to defend the CCP’s human rights abuses along with his praise of DiBlasio and Adams’ human rights violations vis-à-vis jab mandates.

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  29. 9:16, Please either start your own blog or accept the rules here to stay on topic. It is time-consuming to read the comments that have nothing to do with the topic which is the city's economy, not the vaccine mandate or crime or urging UFTers to vote for Republicans, etc. Disagree with me all you like and call me names. It is a pain but it comes with the territory. Just do it while commenting on the topic of the post.

    I am trying to avoid people hijacking the posts for their own agendas. If your goal is to just wear me out so I give up posting, you may eventually succeed or I may just kill the comment section in which case you will have to go somewhere else. It's easy to start your own blog. Not so easy to build up a following and try to keep them coming back. The irrelevant comments don't keep our audience informed and lead to angry emails about why I let them through.

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    Replies
    1. You are mostly right James but are they racists comments or just republicans comments u think are racists.
      You should share them with your readers and we can decide for themselves if it’s racists or not
      Believe it or not but mandates are a city economic issue and is on topic.

      Delete
    2. 10:21 I know, right?
      I came to the conclusion that ,if any elected representative of uft actually cared about their members, or the future/ legacy of the organization (no matter how few of them!), they would step out of the line now , when the pandemic is over, and say: " prosecuting people based on their vaccination or religious status is wrong. We do not stand for this. And we want people to know it. Gosh, go the the steps of the City Hall with them on October 12, if got guts, but stand up for your members, if you are good for something.

      Delete
  30. The US 10 year rate just crossed above 4 percent. Mortgage rates comfortably exceed 7 percent. We are now in new financial territory. And it ain’t good.

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  31. Please don’t stop the comment section, I enjoy reading all opinions and can come to my own conclusions. Don’t need to be protected from possible racists remarks. I even enjoy wfs and ed notes when he posts. Don’t agree with them but still enjoy a different perspective.

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  32. This is when the genius teachers start asking why they lost money in the tda. “Teacher”

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  33. Well, 7:58–can see you are stressed—you repeated what you typed in your response. Speak with your union rep as soon as possible.

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  34. James,

    Don't let a few rotten apples spoil the bunch. This is the BEST source of UFT information I have.

    Love,

    The Moose

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  35. 7:58
    I'm sorry to read about your problems.
    Call your borough's UFT office and perhaps make an appointment to sit down with someone who can answer all of your questions.
    Good luck.

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  36. Curious James: who fact checks the fact checkers? Nina Jankowitz? I mean...how can we be sure Russia (!!!) hasn't infiltrated your sources? Remember Russia?

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  37. We know what side the censors are on. But even in the face of an Orwellian dystopian they can still be protected by their righteousness.

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  38. I agree with you 2:47 but as of today the politicians who are anti globalist are republicans. There are only a few but not one democrat will break from the narrative that sending billions to other countries instead of helping Americans is a good idea. Not one democrat will fight to open up US energy. Biden just committed 11.4 billion per year to developing nations for the global climate change agenda. I’ve got my issues with republicans but they are the only party with members criticizing the global agenda. It took 4 years for people to recoup what they lost in 2008/2009. The math of gains and loses shows us the 25% decline in the S&P will require a 33.3% gain to break even. How many years will that take with a negative GDP growth? Too damn many. And we may not have hit bottom yet. Another 5% decline would require a 42.9% gain to break even. We are in serious economic trouble. If your money is in the TDA and not fixed, wait for the TRS reporting lag to catch up to the current market conditions. Then check your percentage of loss. If you’re nearing retirement you may not be able to retire when planned.

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  39. My 6 cents: I sometimes respond to the cowardly ignorant comments. Republican democrat etc. Doesn't matter to me one bit. When the s^it is posted i have plenty of time to educate. However the back and forth distracts from the topic. So while you say you can come to your own conclusion nevertheless still a distraction. I do think some folks quietly like to see those ignorant comments go unanswered.

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    Replies
    1. Yes James please only post comments that wfs agrees with and doesn’t think are ignorant. She is the expert on identifying ignorant comments. Let’s all just post the same opinions and leave it at that.

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  40. James please note that comments that waitingforsupport doesn't support distracts from focusing on comments zhe does support, and that takes time away from zher waitingforsupport as zhe has to educate "cowardly ignorant" posters. Please censor accordingly bruh!

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    Replies
    1. I'd this English, or wokeish? I hope you are not an educator.

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    2. Must have taken you hours to construct that response. Congratulations

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  41. @7:58 Idk how I survived my first 2 days... weeks... months... years...and then 23 years. Look into FMLA or some sort of leave of absence? Call the MAP UFT people maybe? For sure, there's no way I'd personally stake my life on the NYC DOE now. Imho NYC and many other places like it are collapsing. It's great that you're recognizing that this system isn't about education early. I understand the financial and health care concerns...it would be great if you could get a job in a better environment than the people of NYC have created for themselves. In the meantime try to look it as a sci-fi movie that you can someday tell your grandkids about...Jmho gl.

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    Replies
    1. I agree, not sure how I also made 27yrs. With all the days off, especially in the fall it goes fast. I wish all my fellow union workers the best of luck in the most dysfunctional system ever created. I would do my best and change schools if possible. Good luck again

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  42. Unless your job was taken away by your own union.

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  43. When you've lost cnn...economy crumbling...

    https://t.co/5uupWH3WYB

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  44. 11:35 and 3:05 I’m still waiting for wfs to go all in on the Holocaust as she once threatened when challenged by someone I guess she thought was Jewish. Racism gets censored here but anti semitism is AOK. Because James picks and chooses what race and ethnicity to protect I got to see what wfs thinks of Jews. This is a reason not to censor. We learn who people are when through their speech.

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  45. 8:20 you're still repeating that same lie. I recall that someone was whining about the teaching of black history and WFS responded with going all in on the holocaust (as in the teaching of it). So you're either lying or you have a problem with the written word. She's not an anti-semite, that's just some bullshit lie that you repeat ad nauseam. We learn who YOU are through YOUR speech.

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  46. @357am. I don't feed that beast. I just knock them in the head with FACTS. That beast is most likely the one using the N word on another topic. As if that hurts someone. As we say in the south, I ain't studying 'em". Stay safe!!!

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