In case you missed the NYC primary mayoral election first choice results, here is a good summary from City and State:
After nearly eight years with Mayor Bill de Blasio, New York City’s Democrats are choosing a new leader in Tuesday’s primary election. The winner will be highly favored to win the general election in November and to inherit a city that’s likely to still be recovering from a historic pandemic that affected just about everything in the mayor’s purview, from crime rates to housing.
In line with recent polling, Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams maintains a strong early lead having received the majority of first-choice votes. Close behind are Maya Wiley, former counsel to de Blasio, and former New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia. The fourth-best performing candidate, Andrew Yang, has already conceded the race, saying, “I am not going to be the next mayor of New York City, based upon the numbers that have come in tonight.” That leaves the remaining candidates with little chance of success, even with ranked-choice voting.
On the Republican side, Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, is the projected winner and candidate to face in the general election, beating out businessman Fernando Mateo.
The UFT's endorsed candidate Scott Stringer is in fifth place. The UFT errored, not so much by endorsing Stringer, but by not picking a number two choice and maybe even a third pick in the new ranked-choice voting system. I am not Monday morning quarterbacking here.
Back on June 11, this blog figured Scott Stringer had a diminished chance of winning but that Maya Wiley was moving up and she was with us on certain important educational priorities including lowering class sizes. This is part of what we stated in our post on the Democratic primary for mayor:
I have no idea why the UFT isn't pushing for a second endorsement now with Stringer so low in the polls. The left seems to be consolidating around Wiley. The AOC endorsement certainly gave her a big push.
The UFT didn't do anything much beyond starting a PAC and in my view producing some highly ineffective tv commercials for Stringer and then softly telling members not to rank Andrew Yang or Eric Adams.
Shouldn't the UFT have had a major public discussion at the Delegate Assembly about endorsing a second choice? We might have been able to assist Wiley. The odds are against Wiley making up 9 percentage points now with absentee ballots and lower choices to catch Eric Adams but it is not impossible. No absentee ballots have been counted yet and many are still coming in. One never knows what will happen when the absentee ballots are added in and all of the second choice, third choice, fourth choice, and fifth choice votes are counted as candidates like Stringer are eliminated.
Norm adds to the story with his election analysis on EdNotes. His lead:
Mulgrew told people not to vote for Adams. But in essence he may have helped Adams get elected. Mulgrew and the UFT could have taken advantage of RCV --- but the UFT is center/right Democratic Party and Wiley was too far out -- they won't say it but would rather have Adams than Wiley - better to have more charters? Was it an error in judgment or a calculated political decision? No one outside the black box of narrow UFT decision making knows.
This piece from Huff Post may help sort out the odds:
In the ranked-choice voting system that New York City voters adopted in a 2019 referendum, voters have the chance to submit their top five choices for a municipal office.
The votes are then counted in five rounds. In each round, the worst-performing candidate is eliminated, and that candidate’s voters are redistributed to those voters’ next-ranked choice. The winning candidate is the first person to reach a majority of votes through this multi-round elimination system.
It is highly unusual for a candidate to overcome a deficit in first-choice votes to win in subsequent rounds ― let alone a lead as large as the one Adams’ currently holds over Wiley.
Since 2004, just 15 of 398 ranked-choice voting elections with single-candidate winners have resulted in a candidate who trailed in first-choice votes winning the election, according to data assembled by FairVote, a nonprofit that promotes the ranked-choice voting system.
And as FiveThirtyEight notes, just three of those 15 come-from-behind candidates overcame first-round deficits of more than 6.2 percentage points.
But there are a few factors that might increase the likelihood of an upset in this contest.
First, there are still many first-choice votes that have yet to be counted. New York City’s election rules allow for absentee ballots to be submitted up to a week after Election Day. Voters have until July 9 to “cure” ― or correct ― any mistakes that would lead their absentee ballot to be disqualified and thrown out.
Thus far, 207,500 Democrats in the city have requested absentee ballots and 86,920 of those voters have returned their completed absentee ballots.
The city’s Board of Elections is not expected to announce an official winner in the race until the week of July 12.
In addition, there are some political dynamics at play that might make Wiley and former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia, who received 19.5% of the in-person vote and is currently in third place, more competitive in subsequent rounds.
In a race where a number of candidates flamed out ― or lashed out ― in embarrassing ways, Wiley steered clear of major mistakes and controversies.
Wiley’s allies believe that her respectful campaigning style maximized her appeal with upscale white liberals, Black voters and staunch progressives.
As a result, they believe, she is likely to be the second-choice favorite of voters whose first-choice candidates get eliminated ― including left-wing former nonprofit executive Dianne Morales and NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer. (Stringer got 5% of the in-person, first-choice vote; Morales received 2.8%.)
But they go onto say that Adams or Garcia are more likely to be the runner-up choice for Yang supporters.
It looks like an Adams-Curtis Sliwa race in the fall. Do you think the UFT stays out?