Wednesday, January 03, 2018

SNOW DAY THURSDAY; NICE TO BE WRONG ON THIS ONE

Updated: It's nice to be wrong predicting school would be open on Thursday. Earlier we wrote that the odds were against a snow day (see below) based on the forecasts we were seeing at the end of the school day.

Surprise, surprise, schools are closed in NYC for Thursday, January 4, 2018. I called it wrong earlier and am happy to admit it. You never know how these storms will move. Good job de Blasio. You get credit for this one.

I just checked AccuWeather again and they are saying that the chances that NYC gets 3 inches of snow or less are 18% and the chances for more than 6 inches are 17% while there is a 65% chance that NYC gets 3-6 inches. Yes I am pleasantly surprised that they closed schools so early with an 83% probability of 6 inches or less of snow for the city.

Maybe the way the city thinks about when to close schools during snowstorms is really changing for good. Last year they closed schools twice and now once in January this year. That's positive news unless we have to start giving up days in spring break or midwinter recess because schools are closed during minor storms. We'll see.

Below is our original post from 3:18 pm this afternoon:
The talk of the teachers today is about snow.

What are the chances of us getting a snow day for Thursday?

Judging by the forecast I just looked at, I would say the odds are against it.

This looks like the worst kind of storm for teachers and students: bad enough for it to be dangerous for us to travel but not so treacherous that it is totally impossible to get through. I expect NYC schools will be open while many of the suburbs will shut down or have delayed openings.

Maybe Carmen Farina will declare it a beautiful day.

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

It will be a totally, awesome, sweet, and perfect day! Macy's will be open so the NYC schools must be open. The nation's biggest babysitter service must stay open. However, I am betting on a lot of teachers who live outside of NYC will be stuck at home. Expect a shit show at the schools with no sub coverage.

Anonymous said...

No way I’m commuting in from Long Island.

Anonymous said...

If you are a teacher who can come in and you don't come in, you suck. I will be the one covering your classes. Sack up and make it.

RBE said...

I've been following this the last day on the weather boards.

With the caveat that "I know nothing about weather and am a liberal arts major who took all his science courses P/NC," here is my take:

The GFS just caved to the NAM and gives NYC 6-10 inches of snow. The NAM had NYC in double digits previous, but was on its own in terms of models. Now it's got company for bigger totals.

The National Weather Service has 5-8 in NYC, with localized amounts of 10+ in Queens.

Winds are expected to be 25-45 MPH.

The worst of the storm is expected to come between 6 AM and 1 PM.

A lot of snow coming right at the height of rush hour with high winds means pretty poor visibility and dangerous travel conditions.

If the 0z model runs don't back off the 6-10 snow total with high winds during the height of rush hour, I bet de Blasio calls it tomorrow.

De Blasio took a lot of heat for the "beautiful day" he and Farina gave us when he first was mayor. He doesn't want a repeat of that.

That said, we are the largest free day care center in the world, so I'm sure they'll look for every possible way to keep us open.

Also would note, the TV mets still have totals down around 1-3 inches (Fox) and 3-5 (CBS), which gives de Blasio cover if he leaves school open.

If you want to follow the weather boards, try here:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/11-new-york-city-metro/

Pogue said...

No Veterans Day may have given the DOE some Snow Day wiggle room.

Anonymous said...

Ummm, it is just the first week of January. We only have 2 snow days banked. If this storm is not that bad and they make it a snow day I will be pissed because chances are we will face bigger ones in the next 3 months. I would hate to use up our 2 days and then start loosing vacation days. Be careful for what you ask for, you just might get it!

Highly Effective King Clovis said...

Either way, I plan to go to work tomorrow. Such is the life of the ATR...

RBE said...

De Blasio just called it - snow day tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/948699608670199808

waitingforsupport said...

No school tomorrow

Anonymous said...

CRACKING A BEER NOW!

Anonymous said...

Ah, does it matter?

Anonymous said...

DeBlasio for chancellor

Anonymous said...

Great prediction Eterno. Know nothing

James Eterno said...

I hope to be totally wrong about the contract too by the way.

Anonymous said...

My only fear is winter just started and only one or two snow days left before we have new problems...

Anonymous said...

I hope Eterno is wrong on the contract too. Maybe the tide is turning for the better for teachers in NYC.

Anonymous said...

James- How many snow days are built into the calendar?

Anonymous said...

To 5:23,

How dare you judge staff for not coming in when the weather is bad!

You are either a millennial or an AP posting on here.

I will never risk my life driving in from Nassau for the doe on poor snow days.

Not all of us live across the street from schools.

James Eterno said...

8:05, I counted 185 days where teachers work for 2017-18 and four are allowed to be staff development so that should give us some room this year but I think Mulgrew at the DA said only 2 or 3 snow days so who knows?

Anonymous said...

I'm 5:23. I am not a millennial or an AP. In fact I am a 20+ year veteran teacher in NYC. I am not judging staff for not coming in if in fact, it is not safe for them to do it. What I was saying is that I see way too many teachers who live close to school or who use mass transportation who simply get lazy and don't want to come in when it snows. We are public servants and if the schools are open we should do what we can to get in IF WE CAN. Over all my years working for the DOE, I have seen tons of teachers who live super close to school not come in and then we get slammed with coverages. I repeat, I am not judging teaches who really can't make it in. Rather, I am saying that I get pissed at teachers who just don't feel like coming in when they have the ability to do so. Lastly, I do not not live near my school. In fact, I live 40 miles away and take the train in the snow if the trains are working. (I have never experienced the trains shut down when schools were open)

Anonymous said...

My understanding is two days. We have Brooklyn-Queens days, and a full clerical day in June, and since I have to be there anyway, I have no problem with them sending in the kids.

10:33- I live close to school. However, it's just a matter of time before my car gets plowed into its parking spot. I will not take the bus and walk on icy sidewalks to get to school- broke my wrist being a "hero" one winter years ago, and I won't be doing that again. So you say you're not judging- but you really are. I'm not sacrificing my physical well being when I'm treated like garbage on any given day.

Anonymous said...

Fine, I'm judging. Guess I am just sick of teachers who can make it in but don't and I have to deal with all the crazy kids due to no coverages. Call me hardcore, or a martyr. or a judge, I don't really care. Over it.

Anonymous said...

"They say that people don't believe in hero's anymore. Well, damn them! We're going to give them back their hero's. You and me Max.". -Fifi, MAD MAX

Anonymous said...

Serious question: Cuomo has declared a state of emergency for NYC, and DeBlasio says schools are expected to be open tomorrow. Aren't those two diametrically opposed?

Anonymous said...

Dude, are you kidding? Of course the schools will be open tomorrow. You think parents are going to want to keep their kids at home for 4 days in a row? (Especially right after Christmas break) Count on the schools being opened. Mayor will probably make the announcement around 6pm tonight.

Anonymous said...

Hey 5:23-
No you're not a hero, just a fool for being pissed at TEACHERS who don't want to take a risk and travel when common sense says stay put. You WOULD be right to be pissed at your EMPLOYERr for opening the schools and putting children, parents and staff at risk.
You should get your head straight.

Anonymous said...

My head is totally on straight. I am sticking to my point. As mentioned, if you can SAFELY make it in, then you should. If you CAN'T safely make it in stay home. Of course I am pissed at my employer for keeping schools open during snow. However, I am also pissed if healthy teachers who can make it in to school choose not too and I, and the half of teachers who do show up have to do their work for them. For the last time, I am only pissed at those who can safely make it in and choose not too. There are tons of teachers who physically can't make it in safely and I have no ill will toward them. But for a teacher who can make it in safely and chooses not too on a day when they know half of the staff will be out, I have every right to be upset with what I have to deal with due to their choice. We don't decide if the schools stay open but we gotta deal with it when they are. That is what we do. Once again, hate me all you want. I don't care.

Anonymous said...

Rule 1 of the doe.

Hard work and dedication is punished.

Rule 2. Are rule 1.

I’m 39 and have 17 years experience so I know of what I say.

Anonymous said...

Rule 2. Are Rule 1? What?

Anonymous said...

I shouldn't have needed to contact my CL just now about an issue I anticipate having as a result of calling out tomorrow. Shouldn't be this way, because I have about 140 days in my CAR and am not exactly somebody who abuses the system. (See Rule 1: Hard work and dedication are punished).

Anonymous said...

Agree.

Anonymous said...

Call in the morning and say ‘I am unable to come in today’.

End of story. No ‘the roads are bad’

The less you say the easier it is

Anonymous said...

What issue do you anticipate having?

Anonymous said...

I work in a crazy place. Must specifically say you have some sort of ailment to be charged with a sick day, as opposed to a personal day. If you take 3 personal days and need a fourth, they will dock you a day's pay, even though you technically haven't touched a sick day (like I said- crazy place). Wording is everything, and I agree, less is more.

3:31 fortunately, the issue is no longer an issue (don't want to get into particulars here, as I never know who reads these blogs), so my mind is at ease now.

Anonymous said...

You must admit, however, that they are being much more lenient with school closings then there were 20 or 25 years ago. The joke used to be something like this:
Asteroid to hit earth tomorrow
All life on planet doomed

Chancellor announces two hour delay in opening

Anonymous said...

Gonna be a beautiful day tomorrow! Tons of drifting snow, plenty of roads not plowed, ice everywhere, below freezing weather. Teachers and kids must report to school. The babysitting service will go on as scheduled!

Anonymous said...

Cynicism back. At least we had a one day reprieve.

Anonymous said...

Yonkers public schools are closed tomorrow just like every other school district surrounding NYC. Not that it matters of course. Anyway, be safe getting in tomorrow everyone!