As we start 2018, the questions about our contract are heard over and over. The current UFT Contract expires at the end of November. Speculation on our next contract is all around. DC 37 is in negotiations with the city and will probably set a pattern for raises for unionized city workers for our next contracts within a few months. All of the other municipal unions will be stuck with whatever DC 37 agrees to because of pattern bargaining. One union sets a pattern for raises for city workers and then all of the other city unions get basically the same settlement. Pattern bargaining has been upheld by arbitration panels for decades.
We have more information on what the pattern is likely to be by examining State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli's December 20, 2017 report on NYC finances.
Right there on page 17 is an explanation of the city's projections on municipal labor settlements for the next round of collective bargaining from its own budget plan:
The November Plan includes resources to fund annual wage increases of 1 percent after the expiration of the current round of collective bargaining. The actual cost of the next round of collective bargaining will be determined through negotiation or arbitration, and could be higher than assumed in the November Plan. Wage increases at the projected inflation rate, for example, would increase costs by $84 million in FY 2018, $276 million in FY 2019, $686 million in FY 2020 and nearly $1.2 billion in FY 2021.
And on page 18:
The City is expected to seek additional health insurance savings with the assistance of the municipal unions to help fund wage increases in the next round of bargaining.
Figure about 1% from us and 1% from the city and presto: instant labor contracts.
Trump's budget and the federal tax cuts will be used as the excuse to keep raises low.
Does anyone have a different contractual outlook?
Welcome back to school everyone. I hope you had an enjoyable vacation.