New salaries: Raises of 2%, 2.5% and 3% produce a three-year compound rate of 7.7 percent, above expert predictions of inflation of 6.2 percent (Federal Reserve Bank) and 6.8 percent (International Monetary Fund).
UFT spin, spin, spin=mislead, mislead, mislead.
Here is a link to the IMF site.
This is a proposed 43 month contract that does not end until 2022 so it is closer to four years than three. If we calculate the start as including the 2.5 extra months in the current contract for paid family leave and an extra month to pay the retirees lump sum payments, it should be 46.5 months or almost four years. However, since we in opposition to Unity go out of our way to be fair, we will just do 43 months which is still closer to four years than three and won't end until almost three-fourths of 2022 are through.
Let's look at the actual data from the IMF because people love data so much these days. (The Fed projections only go through 2020 on their site so we can't use them for comparisons.)
The proposed contract starts in 2019 and ends in 2022. If we use the IMF calculator, we can see the actual inflation projections for these years.
Find the US on the right side and then click on the years 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 on the left. It's kind of tricky to do but the US expected inflation rate will show for each year next to the US.
Year: Expected US Inflation Rate
2019: 2.1%
2020: 2.3%
2021: 2.2%
2022: 2.2%
Total: 8.8%
7.7% compounded raises while inflation is expected to increase by 8.8% over the next four years.
Bottom line: 1.1% pay cut for UFT members in terms of expected inflation. Yes, I know it isn't a full four years but don't forget the healthcare "savings" that all of us, not just new teachers, will be paying for. Healthcare savings will be thrown in at a later date.
You want facts or UFT Bullshit?* Your call.
*Sorry, I usually don't curse in the postings.
33 comments:
I worry that in the future, opposition will be accused of crying wolf when there is a real abomination a la 2005.
I'm not disputing the numbers you gave, but the pay was set by the pattern anyway.
Not to mention, we know the NY Teacher newspaper is the Pravda of Unity already. It does burn very well in a Weber charcoal chimney. (I do not own a bird or cat to line a cage or litterbox with.)
I'd like to see a 2 obs max for all (or at least for tenured, I remember doing 6 formals when untenured) but the 2 obs min for most of us with E's - I am assuming this is AFTER the matrix is applied - is good progress. I'd like to see the end of ATRism as well, but we have to fight the entrenched Bloomklein people inch by inch it seems. Plus, there are ATR's in my building who prefer the current arrangement to being force placed into a bad school (bad being a bad school or a bad school for them due to things like commuting).
Why did UFT have to lie? It is a lie that we beat inflation.
UFT sucks. How do we opt out?
Voting NO will have more of an impact on the UFT then opting out will right now.
Don't opt out. Opting out is like not voting in local, state, or federal elections. It's easy to say that your voice isn't heard, but when millions of (or in this case thousands) of voices come together in opposition it can force change. And remember, as shitty as this contract maybe it would be so much worse without a union or collective bargaining. Be the change you want to see.
That's why I'm opting out. How do I opt out?
Opting out won't help. A lousy union is better than no union. Voting "No" in a large number will be more effective. The UFT will just make up the lost money by raising the dues.
If you opt out now you are still going to pay dues, but lose your right to vote.
I cant wait to ope out. Where is the website that opts out for you?
Opting out will only make it worse for everyone. Aside from that, you'll be benefiting from the hard work of others without paying your fair share. That's a shitty thing to do to your colleagues.
Gun found in PS 5 bathroom in Brooklyn. The uft has also mislead us concerning our own safety.
I am confused .
If we are subject to pattern bargaining and DC 37 set the pattern,which based on some predictions may be below the cost of living....how could a higher percent raise be achieved?
Mobilizing and threatening a job action or waiting for the PBA to settle in arbitration and linking ourselves to their second pattern.
Pattern bargaining is not the law.
James are you saying that the sources sited by the UFT about projected inflation is untrue? But your sited prediction is true? How is the UFT lying?
So Unions do not have to follow the pattern? Then why do they? How would waiting for the PBA arbitration....setting another pattern help if pattern bargaining is not the law?
The Pattern is merely the amount the city wishes to pay. What you eventually get is the amount you are prepared to fight and sacrifice for. We really don’t need a union if we are going to roll over and settle. We should not be so willing to accept what the city is willing to give.
There are thousands more teachers in NYC than police officers. The NYC DOE budget is billions more than that of the NYPD. I think teachers will always follow DC 37.
If NYC eliminated the billions wasted in most of the middlemen between the teachers and the chancellor, then NYC could save a lot of money and present an enticing contract.
10:54, Pattern bargaining is not the law. It is a accepted practice. Prehistoric Pedagogue makes some interesting points.
Why do an early contract unless it is something really spectacular?
Why is the UFT rushing this contract?
If my memory serves ,the only time we received a substantial percentage above the pattern was in 2005.....which came with major give backs and more time. Can you point to any city Union that was able to achieve substantial raises above the pattern with as early or on time contract?
Do you think if we wait we will get more money?
So we vote no and go on strike and wait for PBA's arbitration (which I thought got slightly less last time)? This is not much of a strategy. Most people aren't willing to question their supervisors and you are asking then to go on strike?
We won't get more money. We will just wait longer to get the same thing. I don't w as tv y out deal with back pay again for a possible .1 or .2 here or there
The MORE HS Ex Bd members say to vote yes on NYC Educator
http://nyceducator.com/2018/10/vote-yes_19.html?m=1
You can put pressure on the city by organizing people and having a real contract campaign. Even if you don't get more money, you have gotten people excited about the union and you may make real non monetary gains like getting back some of the givebacks from 2005. You need to have a credible threat of a job action and not necessarily a strike. The PBA will set a uniform pattern that you can bet will beat DC 37, but not substantially, in arbitration. We could try to get that.
As for the person questioning the numbers, UFT did it as if it were three annual raises but the contract goes for 43 months. That's more than half of a fourth year so you have to put in those four year totals. Add the extensions we added to the last contract and we have almost a full year of 0% yet again. The city is swimming in cash. No need to settle for peanuts under these circumstances.
Please remember that in one arbitration, incoming police officers salaries were REDUCED. Not the way I want to go!
Mulgrew said on a podcast that negotiations almost blew up but they pushed through, working 18 hour days. Im curious, what was the first offer the city made? Did we have to pay then to work. Was it 3 years of zero? If it pattern bargaining, what did they negotiate? What did we gain? Just like in 2014, there were such amazing negotiations, but...What did the city ofefr at first? No retro? No raises? 9 years of zero? The uft is proud of the last 2 deals, it seems.
Opting out is the only sensible thing. I'm so glad we have this blog to tell us why.
James weren’t you predicting 1% raises for all city employees in your 3/8/18 column? LOL
Unions having Uniform “status” have done slightly better than civilian ones(like teachers), that said, they are usually around what everyone else gets in pattern bargaining and when they have gone to binding arbitration have taken significant losses for their increased raises like when they reduced staring pay by 25% for new hires. Patterns have only been broken for both with extreme givebacks. Take a look at the 2005 contract if you want a recent history lesson. This contract is a good one with good raises, stronger protections and due process for our Para professitionals. Go talk to a Para to see how important this provision is.
1% is what the city set aside for raises. Much of the rest we are paying for through healthcare concessions. Prediction was pretty close.
Paras starting salary in 2021 will be around $28,000 per year in NYC. That is nothing to write home about.
In our current contract, do we get back anything we gave back in 2005? I didn't think so.
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